The first batch is ready. The boxes are in the warehouse, the shop is up and running, and the campaign has kicked off. As the days go by, instead of orders, an uncomfortable question arises: did customers really need this product?
At that stage, it’s already too late for a cheap trial. Money has been spent on the formulation, packaging and stock that needs to be sold. The problem began earlier — when a good idea was deemed a proven one.
How can you assess a supplement’s sales potential before production? The best answer comes from a combination of several factors: customer needs, competitors’ behaviour, a communication test, an acceptable price, and the financial viability of the venture once marketing costs are factored in. The aim is not to be certain, but to minimise the number of unknowns before making a costly decision.
The idea for a supplement is a hypothesis, not yet a product
“Let’s make a supplement with a trendy ingredient” sounds like a clear direction, but in reality it’s only the beginning. It’s not yet clear who’s going to buy it, in what circumstances, for what reason, and why they’d choose this particular brand.
It’s worth writing the idea down in a simple sentence:
We create [type of product] for [a specific group] who want to [achieve a specific goal or solve a problem], and who will choose us because of [our key differentiator].
If it is difficult to fill any of these gaps, it is too early to select raw materials. A product ‘for all active people’ is difficult to translate into a precise advert and product offering.
Personal beliefs must be distinguished from market signals. A brand owner’s desire to buy a product is an inspiration, but not proof of sufficient demand.
Start with the customer’s problem, not with a list of ingredients
Consumers rarely think about a specific combination of extracts. Instead, they want to simplify their routine, take the product to work with ease, or avoid having to swallow yet another large capsule.
That is why, before production begins, it is necessary to understand not only, what the customer is looking for, but also:
- in what circumstances does the need for it arise,
- how he is coping with it at the moment,
- what he finds problematic about the products available,
- which leads them to decide against buying or using it,
- who he trusts when making decisions,
- where they most often buy products in this category.
This knowledge can change the product’s form, portion size, packaging, price, sales channel, or even the entire concept.
Research the market, but don’t copy bestsellers
Competitor analysis is not about copying a bestseller. It confirms demand within the category, but does not yet show whether there is room for another brand.
It’s worth comparing:
- target groups and the promises made by individual brands,
- product form, ingredients, dosage and number of servings,
- regular prices and the frequency of promotions,
- sales channels and the way the product is presented,
- the number and content of customer reviews,
- the aspects most frequently criticised by users.
Three- and four-star reviews are particularly valuable. Behind the phrase ‘the product is good, but…’ there is often scope for more user-friendly packaging, better flavour or simpler dosing.
A category in which all products compete on price is a risky one. Without your own community, distribution network or unique selling point, entering such a category can mean a costly battle for attention.
A trend is an indication, not a guarantee of sales
The growing number of searches and the ingredient’s popularity may indicate interest. However, they do not necessarily mean that customers will buy a specific product at the planned price.
It is worth assessing the trend from several angles:
- whether interest has been growing for months, or whether this is a one-off spike,
- whether the discussions concern actual use or are merely points of interest,
- Do products in this category regularly receive new reviews,
- Do customers buy the product again, or do they see it as a one-off experiment,
- whether the trend is suited to the brand’s target audience and sales channels.
A product that’s popular on TikTok may be difficult to sell as part of a subscription service. Another might have few search hits, but meet the needs of a specific group well. A trend is no substitute for a business model.
Talk to potential customers — but make sure you ask the right questions
The question ‘Would you buy a product like this?’ usually elicits overly optimistic answers. The person you’re talking to wants to be helpful, the idea sounds interesting, and a hypothetical purchase costs them nothing.
Questions about actual behaviour will reveal much more:
- When was the last time you bought a product from this category,
- what did you choose and why,
- how much did you pay,
- where did you look for information,
- what was the most annoying thing about using it,
- Why did you buy it again or why did you cancel?
If someone says they want convenience but regularly buys a large pack of washing powder, their behaviour speaks louder than their words. The aim of the conversation is to uncover their actual decision, not to confirm the brand’s assumption.
After a dozen or so conversations with the relevant group, certain issues, objections and phrases will start to recur. This is valuable insight into the product and how it is communicated.
Test the communication before the final product is created
You don’t need a fully developed website to see if your proposal grabs people’s attention. You can put together a simple sign-up page, a visual representation of the concept or a few different versions of the message, and direct a small amount of advertising traffic towards them.
Such a test may reveal:
- which issue is of most interest to the audience,
- Which form of the product arouses the most curiosity,
- whose headline encourages readers to find out more,
- how many people leave their contact details or join the waiting list,
- what questions arise before a potential purchase.
It must be made clear that the product is still in development. Paid pre-orders require a realistic timetable, transparent terms and conditions, and a refund policy. Validation must not give the impression that the product already exists.
Clicking on an advert is a weaker signal than providing an email address. Signing up is weaker than making a payment. The more effort or commitment a customer’s action requires, the more it indicates genuine interest.
Check the price before you calculate demand
The question ‘Do you like the product?’ is not enough. Customers must like the product at a price that allows the company to make a profit.
It is worth setting a price range and working backwards from the retail price when calculating the project costs, taking into account:
- the cost of the product and packaging,
- transport, warehousing and fulfilment,
- marketplace and payment fees,
- discounts, samples, returns and complaints,
- marketing and customer acquisition cost,
- taxes and a buffer for unforeseen expenses.
The idea might attract interest at a price of 49 zł, but lose it at 89 zł. If only the second price ensures a reasonable margin, the problem isn’t the campaign itself — the economics of the whole concept don’t add up.
Assess the sales channel and customer access
A good product is still a risky proposition if there’s no way of reaching customers. Where will the first hundred orders come from?
A brand with an active community, an ad-supported product and a concept for a retail chain are assessed differently. Each channel has different requirements regarding price, packaging, margins and deliveries.
Worth checking out:
- Does the brand already have a target audience that is a good fit for the product,
- what content and offers had previously elicited a response,
- how much might it cost to acquire the first customer,
- Does the product have the potential to generate repeat purchases,
- Will the planned margin be sufficient to finance the sale?
Thousands of followers do not always translate into sales. What is far more important is whether the community trusts the brand in that particular area and whether it has made similar purchasing decisions in the past.
Check feasibility with the manufacturer
An idea may pass a market test and yet still not be suitable for profitable production. It is therefore necessary to assess it in the context of technology and the supply chain.
The following, amongst other things, need to be checked:
- the ability to achieve the intended form and dosage,
- flavour, portion size and ease of use,
- availability and delivery times of raw materials,
- minimum order quantity,
- the cost of the first and subsequent batches,
- the scope of investigations, documentation and tests,
- the ability to increase production on a consistent basis.
Changing the format or packaging may reduce the MOQ. On other occasions, a key ingredient means the project does not fit within the target price. It is better to sort this out before launching the campaign.
Instead of a grand launch, plan a controlled test
The first batch can also be seen as a learning phase, provided its size does not tie up the entire budget.
A controlled launch may involve a limited run, a single flavour, a single sales channel, or a launch targeted initially at the most engaged section of the community. It is worth defining in advance what results will constitute success:
- sales figures for the first few weeks,
- cost of winning a contract,
- product page conversion,
- the proportion of customers returning to buy another pack,
- the number of complaints and recurring feedback,
- the point at which the next production run needs to begin.
Without these criteria, almost any result could subsequently be deemed ‘promising’. A well-designed test should enable a decision to be made: whether to scale up, improve or halt the project.
Green, yellow and red signals before production
There is no single indicator that will definitively validate an idea. However, one can look at all the information gathered as a whole.
Green signals This is a recurring issue for customers: specific purchasing behaviours, interest once the price is shown, a growing waiting list, a realistic margin and the option to start with a safe batch.
Yellow signals There are plenty of positive statements but little action; a great deal of interest in content without any sign-ups; a high degree of dependence on a single trend; or a business model that only works when advertising costs are very low.
Red lights These issues arise when it is impossible to clearly identify the target audience, customers fail to recognise the problem, the acceptable price does not cover costs, the MOQ exceeds actual demand, and the only distinguishing feature is a longer list of ingredients.
A single red signal does not always mean the end of the project. It often indicates an element that needs to be changed before production begins.
The most common mistakes when assessing a supplement’s potential
It is not the good ideas that cost the most, but those that have only been tested in a convenient way. Common mistakes include:
- a survey of only friends and existing fans of the brand,
- regarding the number of views as evidence of a willingness to buy,
- copying a bestseller without any distinctive features of its own,
- testing a concept without quoting an actual price,
- calculating the margin excluding marketing and logistics costs,
- ordering a large batch solely to achieve a lower unit price,
- ignoring negative responses that contradict the team’s assumptions,
- an attempt to test several products, flavours and target groups at the same time.
A thorough validation process may result in the decision not to develop the product for the time being. This is not a failure. It saves capital, time and energy, which can then be channelled into a stronger concept.
How does Pharma Dot help evaluate an idea before production?
At Pharma Dot, we examine an idea from the perspectives of the product, production and subsequent sales all at once. We analyse the target audience, the form, the formulation, the potential price, the MOQ, the packaging, the distribution channels and the logistics. This ensures that an attractive concept is tested against practical realities right from the start.
We can help turn a general direction into a specific brief, choose a ready-made or bespoke formulation, prepare a testable prototype, and plan production without tying up funds unnecessarily.
Do you have an idea for a supplement and are wondering whether the market is ready for it? Before you order your first batch, let’s find out who’s going to buy it, why, and at what price. Sometimes, a few questions asked at the outset are worth more than the biggest launch campaign.
FAQ – How can you assess a supplement’s sales potential?
Is it possible to gauge demand for a supplement before it is manufactured?
Yes. You can analyse the competition and customer behaviour, conduct interviews with your target audience, test your messaging, set up a sign-up page or a waiting list, and gauge the reaction to your planned price. No single test can provide absolute certainty, but combining several methods significantly reduces the risk.
How many people should take part in the concept test?
There is no single required number. A dozen or so in-depth interviews may reveal recurring needs and objections, whilst an advert or website test should gather enough data to ensure the result is not dependent on a few random clicks. More important than the number itself is how well the participants match the target audience.
Does a high number of searches guarantee sales of a supplement?
No. Search queries indicate an interest in the topic, but do not confirm acceptance of a specific form, brand or price. They need to be combined with an analysis of purchases, reviews, the competition and user behaviour during the trial of the offer.
Is it worth taking pre-production orders?
Pre-orders can be a good way of gauging readiness to buy, but they require clear information about the product’s stage of development, a realistic delivery date, transparent terms and conditions, and a refund policy. You should not promise a date that the manufacturer has not confirmed.
When has an idea been sufficiently validated to start production?
When a brand is able to clearly identify its target audience and the reason for purchase, it sees concrete signs of interest at a realistic price, knows the cost of reaching the customer, has a viable business model, and has confirmed feasibility and a safe production volume for the first batch. There is still a risk, but it is a known risk and one that can be managed.
